IC Insights is forecasting the average selling prices for MCUs to increase 10% in 2022 to reach an all-time high of $21.5 billion and are expected to move moderately higher through 2026.
According to IC Insights’Q1 update to its 2022 McClean Report, Microcontroller sales boomeranged back with strong growth in the economic recovery of 2021, when MCU market climbed 23% to a record-high $19.6 billion after falling 2% in the 2020 outbreak year of the Covid-19 virus crisis.
The data showed the ASP of MCU are rebound and increase 10% to $0.64, which is the highest annual growth rate in more than 25 years. It is resulted from the tight supplies of MCU. For two decades, the MCU market has faced significant price erosion while the decline slowed in the last five years. IC Insights expects the ASP for MCUs to rise by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% between 2021 and 2026.
Between 2021 and 2026, total microcontroller sales are projected to increase by CAGR of 6.7% and reach $27.2 billion in the final year of the forecast. In the next five years, sales of 32-bit MCUs are expected to grow by a CAGR of 9.4% to hit $20.0 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, 4/8-bit MCU sales are projected to show no growth over the next five years, remaining stuck at about $2.4 billion in 2026. Revenues for 16-bit microcontrollers are expected to rise by a CAGR of 1.6% in the 2021-2026 period to $4.7 billion at the end of the forecast.
Among the end-use categories, automotive MCU growth is outpacing most this year. The 2019 downturn in the automotive industry and a weak global economy led to a 9% drop in MCU shipments that year, the worst unit decline since the 2009 semiconductor downturn (-11%). But surprisingly, MCU unit shipments rebounded in 2020, growing 8% despite the coronavirus crisis and widespread lockdowns to slow the pandemic. MCU demand amid the 2020 virus crisis has been driven primarily by sales of home entertainment systems and electronics purchased by quarantined consumers, including large-screen TVs, IoT-connected products and more sensors packed into smartphones.
About 46% of microcontroller sales come from MCUs in "general purpose" embedded applications (including smartphones, computers and peripherals, industrial use, and consumer products), while just over 40% come from automotive systems and 14% from the smart card market Banking, credit and debit card purchases, bus fares, ID and other uses. Automotive MCU sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.7% over the next five years, while general-purpose MCU revenue is expected to grow at 7.3%, and the smart card market is expected to grow at a 1.4% annual rate through 2026.
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